Red Sox 2022 MLB playoff odds: Boston longshot for postseason as likely do-or-die homestand begins vs. Blue Jays

The Boston Red Sox won 92 games in the 2021 regular season and reached the American League Championship Series, but their pitching staff has been gutted by injuries in 2022, a big reason they are 60-62 and six games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. Caesars Sportsbook currently lists Boston at +900 (10%) to make the playoffs as a likely do-or-die homestand begins tonight vs. Toronto. The Jays are -140 favorites for the opener.

The Red Sox are a brutal 16-32 inside the AL East this season, and the other four teams are all at least .500. Boston is 2-12-1 in series against AL East teams and 14-6-4 vs. all others. That's why it's likely fair to say this three-game set vs. the Blue Jays, who hold down the second AL Wild-Card spot, and the subsequent three vs. the Rays, who lead the Wild-Card chase, is a battle for Boston's season. A 1-5 record in those six games would likely spell the end for the Red Sox. The Boston Herald already has given up with this headline today: "Time to say goodbye to the 2022 Red Sox and look to the future"

The Sox only have four series remaining outside the division: Three games at Minnesota starting next Monday, four vs. Texas (Sept. 1-4), three vs. Kansas City (Sept. 16-18) and two at Cincinnati (Sept. 20-21).

Baseball-Reference gives the Red Sox a 3.3% chance to make the playoffs (equates to +2600) and FanGraphs 6.7% (+1400). The Sox are -1800 to miss the postseason at Caesars (about 95%).

Because Boston's rotation has been so hammered – ace Chris Sale barely pitched this season and is done for the year with an injury – a total of four rookies have started on the mound. Josh Winckowski (12 starrts), who goes tonight, and Kutter Crawford (10) are just the second pair of Red Sox rookie pitchers to each make at least 10 starts in a season since 1994. Eduardo Rodriguez (21) and Henry Owens (11) did so in 2015. That team finished 78-84. The other two rookies to start this year are Brayan Bello (3) and Connor Seabold (3).

Winckowski (5-6, 5.19 ERA) was sent down following a poor start last Thursday in Pittsburgh but had to be called right back up to start vs. the Jays because Nathan Eovaldi is hurt. Winckowski hasn't previously faced Toronto, which is 10-3 vs. Boston this year.

The Jays start Ross Stripling (5-3, 2.93) who pitched six perfect innings last time out vs. Baltimore before allowing a hit. He's 0-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings this year against the Red Sox. Xander Bogaerts hits him well, going 6-for-13 with a double and homer. Over 1.5 bases for Bogaerts is -102 tonight and Under -143. 

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