Nationals vs. Dodgers MLB Monday probable pitchers, odds: NL Cy Young contender Tony Gonsolin may be starting to regress

Major League Baseball's history is littered with players that had an incredible, out-of-nowhere first half of a season and were named All-Stars, only to regress in a massive way after the break. Could regression already have started for unlikely Los Angeles Dodgers ace and NL Cy Young contender Tony Gonsolin? He makes his first start post-break Monday vs. the visiting Washington Nationals, who are the biggest underdogs on the board at Caesars Sportsbook.

It sure seems like Caesars oddsmakers were a bit leery of Gonsolin (11-0, 2.02 ERA), as he was never the NL Cy Young favorite despite the fact he hasn't lost in 17 starts and led the Senior Circuit in ERA for a while. In fact, the 28-year-old right-hander became one of just 10 players in MLB history to begin a season with 17 starts without taking a loss.

However, he was the loser in the All-Star Game last Tuesday at Dodger Stadium, becoming the first starting pitcher to enter the All-Star break undefeated but then take the loss in the All-Star Game regardless of whether he started the Midsummer Classic or not. He was also the first pitcher to pick up the loss in an All-Star Game in his home stadium since Roger Clemens in Houston in 2004.

Ironically, here are Gonsolin's past two losses, although the ASG obviously doesn't count:

• *-Allowed 3 earned runs and two home runs on July 19, 2021 at Dodger Stadium (vs. American League)
• *-Allowed 3 earned runs and two home runs on July 19, 2022 at Dodger Stadium (vs. Giants).

No one is obviously going to begrudge Gonsolin giving up three runs and two homers to a loaded AL roster, but his last start before the break also was concerning as he was knocked around for a season-high five runs over five innings in St. Louis. The Dodgers trailed that game 6-0 in the sixth inning but miraculously won 7-6 to keep Gonsolin unbeaten.

There is some concern that perhaps Gonsolin might be wearing down – possibly why the Dodgers held off starting him again until tonight. In the past two seasons, he had thrown a combined 101.4 innings. He's at 93.2 this year. The most innings he has thrown in a pro season, including work in the minors, was 128.0 in 2018. 

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