He was a disaster in his first start and then pretty good, but not great, second time out. This time around, Skenes dominates. The Padres have never seen him and it's his first home start of the year. He'll go around 90 pitches and strikeout more than a batter per inning.

I will not bet Paul Skenes to win all the time because of the uncertain offense behind the Cy Young winner, but this is pretty good value and certainly a lot better than -165 on the Pirates moneyline vs. San Diego. It's Skenes' 2026 home debut, so a lot of juice in the ballpark with a sellout. Skenes had a 1.77 ERA at lovely PNC Park last year but was only 6-5 thanks to the offense.