I actually would have played Brandon Pfaadt at 5.5 for less juice but 4.5 -165 is the best odds available, so I'll lay it here. Pfaadt has gone over this total in five straight and six of eight overall. He has a good matchup tonight against a Giants team that has struck out 353 times - the 8th most in MLB. Pfaadt has pitched at least 6.0 innings in six of eight starts. If he gets through six here, I like our chances.

Bit surprised the Giants are home dogs here with Robbie Ray on the mound as the lefty looks finally healthy and back to his Cy Young form from a few years ago with the Blue Jays with three straight quality starts. He's also 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four home outings overall. Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt is having a nice season but not on the road for the most part with a 6.06 ERA. The Giants roughed up him in Pfaadt's lone start against them in 2024. I really don't look at models for MLB but ours has SF winning outright -- and I tend to think that way but won't turn down +1.5.