Cleveland bullpen is rested, Ben Lively is great at home. And the Os are not in their finest form. Take Cleveland.

This is a large number for Ben Lively who has failed to go 6 IP in 12/18 starts this season. Lively will have his hands full against a Baltimore offense that is ranked first in the majors in OPS. Baltimore has been red hot recently and has scored a whopping 39 runs in their last 5 games. Look for the Orioles bats to stay hot and get Lively out of the game before he goes 6 IP.

This might be the last arrow in the quiver for Brandon Hyde, as recent deadline add Trevor Rogers is being immediately plugged into a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Perhaps involvement in a pennant race will spark Rogers, who was serviceable in July starts with the lowly Marlins, as his 3.38 ERA for the month can attest. The angle we like here, however, is "under" because Cleveland has been trending that way since well before the All-Star break (12-3 "under" last fifteen games), and Ben Lively has pitched well at home, where he has posted a 2.66 ERA this season. Play O's-G's "Under"

The over looks like a good day for the Orioles as it has since they've gone 59-40 to the over the season. They seem to be back to their selves after slumping for a couple of weeks but have won four of their last five. But more importantly, they've gone over nine of their previous 10. The Orioles have to try and get to the Cleveland starter quickly because they have the best bullpen in baseball. Cleveland has also been shutout 11 times, an astonishingly high number for first place squad. This is about the Orioles settling the lineup and returning to hitting. Over is the play.

I would be shocked if lefty Trevor Rogers isn't making his O's debut tonite. And while he was much better than Miami down the stretch, he is now thrust into a pennant race. And pitching outside of Miami - where homers go to die - he gave up 8 HR in 52 IP with an OPS of .811. His fastball velo is down to 92, making his change less effective. The league is slugging over .415 vs all his pitches and close to .500 vs fastball. And BAL left side D is struggling with Gunnar Henderson in a slump. Jose Ramirez is slugging .750 in his last 7 games and, on the season at home, is slugging .684 vs lefties with an OPS of 1.069.

Minor advantage for the Guardians in that they were off Wednesday. The Orioles are still stacked offensively but definitely took a hit Wednesday when Jordan Westburg (18 HR, 58 RBI, .815 OPS) suffered a fractured hand. Cleveland traded for Washington outfielder Lane Thomas in large part because he hits lefties very well. The Guards likely face one here in newly acquired Trevor Rogers (2-9, 4.53 ERA with Marlins) -- although not 100% yet. We will re-address if not Rogers, and I'm fine with a bullpen day. Pretty much would take the Guardians +1.5 at home vs. most pitchers. Their starter Ben Lively is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA at home. And if Cleveland leads after seven, it's over with that bullpen.