Tired of backing the Reds -- Ever get one of those teams you get bored with? Same stress every time -- but you can only do what the schedule gives you. Feels a shade light with Cincy's Andrew Abbott pitching. He has won four straight and six of seven (2.70 ERA in span), and the Fish have never seen him. I concur (saw an LA Law rerun last night for first time in years and now all I hear is concur) with RJ White on the Under 2.5 ER prop. Miami's Edward Cabrera is capable of dominating but also capable of walking the bases loaded in the bottom of the first on 11 pitches. Yes, 11. I assume one ball for a pitch clock violation.

The Reds offense has been hot over the last five games, scoring 38 runs, while the Marlins' only two wins in July were at home against the basement-dwelling ChiSox. The Reds are a better team than their record suggests with an expected W-L of 50-44, and they have a lefty on the mound against a team that is terrible against southpaws. On the other side, Edward Cabrera wasn't impressive in his return from the IL or in his last rehab start, and he could struggle against a hot offense. I think these odds are underselling the disparity between these two teams and two pitchers.

Andrew Abbott is coming off a gem against the Rockies, and he has a good chance at another here. The Marlins have two wins in July, both at home against the lowly ChiSox, and they have a horrendous 67 OPS+ against lefties this season. Only seven of the 32 lefties to face the Marlins this year have surrendered more than two runs, something Abbott has done just four times in 18 outings and only once at home.