I like the over here. Both teams' offenses have been productive and should contribute to send this game over.

Last year saw Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes' strikeout rate drop from 35% in 2020 and 2021 to 30%. Still good, but something to be concerned about. More concerning? His strikeout rate sits at only 19.4% in 2023, and his swinging strike rate is at 10% (it had been at 15), while his velocity has dropped on every pitch. The prices on both Milwaukee and Seattle tonight are far more in line with 2021 Corbin Burnes than the 2023 version. Seattle is a live dog tonight.

Corbin Burnes hasn't quite looked like Corbin Burnes yet. His K/9 is way down, and while the ERA is outpacing the peripherals, we should jump on this until he starts looking like one of the best starters in the National League again. I like the Mariners to jump on him at home. Seattle is covering in 67% of my model's simulations.