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Thu 08/18 | 12:10 AM UTC | Chicago
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Houston Astros 102-53, +1116 ML
HOU -1.5+110
HOU -155
Over 8-110
Chi. White Sox 77-79, -1463 ML
CHW +1.5-130
CHW +130
Under 8-110

Expert Picks

MLB | Houston 3 @ Chi. White Sox 2 | 08/18 | 12:10 AM UTC

Houston -145

WIN

ANALYSIS: This matchup killed me last night when Houston blew a late 3-1 lead -- as a fan, glad the White Sox won but not as a bettor (at least pushed on the total and didn't lose that, too). Absolutely no way that Sox closer Liam Hendriks can pitch tonight as he has in four of the past five. Major downgrade for an iffy bullpen. Still no Luis Robert in the lineup, or I probably was going to pass. Someone named Romy Gonzalez is the team's starting shortstop with Leury Garcia now on the IL. Chicago pitcher Michael Kopech can dominate but also get wild and knocked around. I trust Houston's Framber Valdez much more. He has posted 19 consecutive quality starts, the longest MLB streak in two years. Valdez is 10-3 with a 2.53 ERA and a .212 opponents' average in that stretch. The Astros' lineup is clearly superior tonight as well with Trey Mancini starting and every other regular in there.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+5228 345-202-1 IN LAST 548 MLB PICKS
+1088 35-17 IN LAST 52 CHW ML PICKS
+792 35-18 IN LAST 53 HOU ML PICKS

Season Splits

102-53, +1116 ML
77-79, -1463 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
63%
75-43, +550
61-56, -413
52%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
59%
36-25, +238
30-29, -730
50%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
67%
67-33, +647
21-22, +364
48%
When Line was -164 to -134
MONEY LINE
When Line was +112 to +142
70%
21-9, +514
9-9, +206
50%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
63%
29-17, +253
6-8, -131
42%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
68%
22-10, +249
18-18, +209
50%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
56%
41-31, -850
11-14, -129
44%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
65%
59-31, +537
46-39, -198
54%
vs CHW
HEAD TO HEAD
vs HOU
40%
2-3, -175
3-2, +223
60%
when Framber Valdez starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Michael Kopech starts
63%
14-8, +23
9-12, -418
42%