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Sun 08/14 | 5:40 PM UTC | St. Petersburg
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Baltimore Orioles 80-76, +2327 ML
BAL +1.5-145
BAL +158
Over 7-120
Tampa Bay Rays 85-70, -525 ML
TB -1.5+122
TB -190
Under 7+100

Expert Picks

MLB | Baltimore 1 @ Tampa Bay 4 | 08/14 | 5:40 PM UTC

Baltimore +158

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Both bullpens are in good shape with each of the first two games being blowouts, but this game should be much closer to 50-50. Jordan Lyles is 5-1 with a 3.52 ERA in his last seven starts and he has been pitching really well lately. He faced Tampa three times this season and struggled in his first two, but pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in his last start against them. Drew Rasmussen has been solid but he didn’t make it five innings in either of his starts against the Orioles. The Rays dominate the matchup history at home, but the Orioles have been playing much better the past couple weeks and months. I like the value in the Os.

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John Bollman

The Executive
+1867 182-138 IN LAST 320 MLB ML PICKS
+904 49-35 IN LAST 84 BAL ML PICKS
+660 16-9 IN LAST 25 TB ML PICKS

Season Splits

80-76, +2327 ML
85-70, -525 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
51%
59-55, +2055
60-53, -790
53%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
43%
26-34, +355
35-22, +226
61%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
49%
49-51, +1716
45-32, -331
58%
When Line was +135 to +165
MONEY LINE
When Line was -192 to -162
48%
13-14, +487
14-4, +383
77%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
42%
24-33, +292
29-17, +40
63%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
44%
11-14, +5
18-15, -176
54%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
51%
15-14, +362
20-10, +485
66%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
54%
47-40, +2201
45-38, -295
54%
vs TB
HEAD TO HEAD
vs BAL
47%
9-10, +96
10-9, -268
52%
when Jordan Lyles starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Drew Rasmussen starts
45%
11-13, +233
14-6, +425
70%