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Fri 08/05 | 11:05 PM UTC | Philadelphia
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Washington Nationals 40-80, -1968 ML
WAS +1.5-125
WAS +175
Over 9+100
Philadelphia Phillies 65-52, +330 ML
PHI -1.5+105
PHI -210
Under 9-120

Expert Picks

MLB | Washington 2 @ Philadelphia 7 | 08/05 | 11:05 PM UTC

Philadelphia -195

WIN

ANALYSIS: I was thrilled last night's game was called after 4.5 innings because Noah Syndergaard was giving me heartburn, diarrhea you name it. However, the main reason I did bet the Phillies is I thought that lineup would be so much better with Jean Segura back and Brandon Marsh's debut and it was -- even if they didn't do much. Just lengthens it. I expect another good night offensively against struggling Nats right-hander Josiah Gray, whom I believe is running out of gas having already blasted past his career high in innings. Gray was excellent in June but 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in July. I don't really love Kyle Gibson of the Phils, although he has been good in three of his past four, so I'll be breaking out the Pepto again tonight I'm sure. Philadelphia will have its full bullpen available after not using any relievers Thursday. At less than -200, gotta do it (opened at -225).

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+3203 289-177-1 IN LAST 467 MLB PICKS
+1191 16-3 IN LAST 19 WAS ML PICKS

Season Splits

40-80, -1968 ML
65-52, +330 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
33%
36-71, -1945
57-48, +178
54%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
38%
19-31, -120
27-25, -509
51%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
31%
29-63, -1692
36-27, -382
57%
When Line was +150 to +180
MONEY LINE
When Line was -212 to -182
38%
7-11, +35
8-2, +207
80%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
38%
19-30, -20
22-18, -459
55%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
30%
15-34, -745
15-15, -465
50%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
18%
4-18, -1123
23-19, -486
54%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
35%
29-52, -840
44-35, +364
55%
vs PHI
HEAD TO HEAD
vs WAS
22%
2-7, -375
7-2, +205
77%
when Josiah Gray starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Kyle Gibson starts
47%
9-10, +290
12-8, +458
60%