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Mon 07/04 | 8:10 PM UTC | Milwaukee
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Chi. Cubs 67-86, -705 ML
CHC +1.5-155
CHC +122
Over 9-105
Milwaukee Brewers 82-71, -1337 ML
MIL -1.5+130
MIL -145
Under 9-115

Expert Picks

MLB | Chi. Cubs 2 @ Milwaukee 5 | 07/04 | 8:10 PM UTC

Milwaukee -145

WIN

ANALYSIS: And we're back! Just needed a Sunday off to clear my head a bit -- and glad I did with all the favorites losing on Sunday. Probably will skip the sabbath the rest of the season. Milwaukee pitcher Eric Lauer hasn't been great of late, but he has been much better at home this year with a 2.25 ERA, and when he faced the Cubs on April 30 in Beer Town, he allowed one run with 11 Ks over seven innings. Chicago is 1-4 in its past five vs. a lefty. Former NL MVP Christian Yelich is rolling for the Brewers with a 12-game hitting streak. Cubs southpaw Justin Steele is 0-2 with a 7.29 road ERA. Yelich has good splits off Steele, so perhaps consider a hitting prop on him. Milwaukee has won four straight vs. lefties.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+4928 342-202-1 IN LAST 545 MLB PICKS
+500 5-0 IN LAST 5 MIL ML PICKS
+1165 39-19 IN LAST 58 CHC ML PICKS

Season Splits

67-86, -705 ML
82-71, -1337 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
40%
32-48, -1144
47-35, -161
57%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
41%
15-21, -239
20-15, -271
57%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
40%
23-34, -392
38-27, -366
58%
When Line was +112 to +142
MONEY LINE
When Line was -164 to -134
33%
7-14, -513
12-7, +115
63%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
41%
12-17, -73
18-12, -200
60%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
40%
16-24, -308
28-16, +241
63%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
52%
10-9, +466
29-19, +25
60%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
41%
25-35, -716
37-28, -177
56%
vs MIL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs CHC
45%
5-6, +83
6-5, -78
54%
when Justin Steele starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Eric Lauer starts
37%
6-10, -294
10-5, +302
66%