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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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The Reds are starting Graham Ashcraft up from AAA. Ashcraft was decent in his debut, but I predict he has problems against this San Francisco offense. While the Reds have made some improvements, their bullpen ERA is still the fourth worst in the league. Contrarily, the Giants' bullpen has regressed, as they now sit just ahead of Cincy with the fifth worst bullpen ERA. The Reds' ability to score will likely be the determining factor for this over, and while it could prove difficult against Carlos Rodon, the Reds still score an average of 5.35 runs per game at home. The over has cashed in 12 of the last 13 Reds home games, so I'll take the value tonight, even against Rodon.
We’re going to see a bunch of runs in this game between the two best Over teams in MLB. The Giants are 25-17-1 on the Over and the Reds are 26-17-1 (14-4 at home). The Reds average 6.2 runs per game at home and also allow 6.2. The Giants have scored 22 in their past two games, and the Reds scored 20 on Thursday. Looks like a shootout. Over is the play.