I've gone back and forth on this as I could be 5-0 today if the Astros pull it out in Arizona and didn't want to ruin a perfect day with a loss here, but, yep, I'm going to pull the trigger. Southpaw John Means is easily Baltimore's best pitcher and the Brewers are 0-2 vs. lefties this season -- shut out in both by pitchers (Justin Steele, Bruce Zimmermann) a lot worse than Means. Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS on the season so we have to try the runline at -115 -- Baltimore is 3-2 ATS. Yes, Corbin Burnes is on the mound for the Brew Crew, but he didn't look right in the season opener in Chicago.

John Means pitched really well in his opening start of the season against the Rays and he faces a similar team today in that they platoon with all righties to face him. Well, the Brewers were ranked just 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Means also gives up more power to righties which is understandable, but he actually gives up a lower BA against righties than lefties. That is the effect of a changeup pitcher. We also saw how the Brewers bats struggled against Justin Steele and Bruce Zimmermann this season, both lefties who shut them out. Of course their bats could all of a sudden wake up this game, but they also pitched their top relievers in Josh Hader and Devin Williams two out of the last three days. That doesn’t mean they are unavailable, but if they do come in, they will be pitching their 3rd game in 4 nights for probably the first time this year. The Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season so they are always capable of blowing it. However, Corbin Burnes also struggled a bit in his first start allowing 3 ER and walking 3 batters in just 5 IP. I like the value on the Orioles at home here.

The Brewers have not looked good in this series, but this is the game that they should light up the Orioles. The Orioles used four relievers on Monday and five relievers yesterday so their already terrible bullpen is now thin. The Brewers will have Corbin Burnes on the mound. He struggled in his first start against the Cubs, but he should have an easy time today against a mainly right-handed Orioles team. Burnes dominated righties last season (.179 BA). Brewers should put up enough runs to cover the run line.