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Ian Anderson is likely the better starter in this game, though after two disastrous starts in the playoffs, Astros starter Luis Garcia was excellent last time out. Regardless, neither starter will get deep in this one and we'll see a lot of bullpen arms used. The Astros bullpen is in a bit better shape right now, so we'll take them to grab a decent lead in the middle innings, causing the Braves to hold out their big gun relievers for Game 4.
The one thing I don't like about World Series betting is that the runlines have no value -- if I could get Houston +1.5 at less than, say, -160 I would probably take it. Alas, it's -210. I have three concerns with the Astros here: Starting pitcher Luis Garcia was terrible in two of his previous three outings; the defense will be worse with usual DH Yordan Alvarez in left field; and with no DH, the Astros have two easy outs at the bottom with catcher Martin Maldonado and the pitcher's spot -- Houston doesn't have a great pinch-hitting option. Obviously, the Braves are used to dealing with no DH. And their catcher can hit a little. They also have won six of the seven career postseason games pitcher Ian Anderson has started.
Ian Anderson has yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start in 7 starts in his postseason career. He has a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 IP, as long as he can get out of the first inning, he should have success. Luis Garcia is coming off easily his best postseason outing, but that was also his only good postseason outing in 4 starts. The Braves head home for their first home World Series game since the 90s and it will be loud. The Braves top relievers will have had 2 days off after working hard in Game 1 and I think they have the starting pitching advantage with Ian Anderson’s deadly changeup. Luis Garcia is still just 24 years old, and he was hit hard in his only road postseason start against the White Sox. Yordan Alvarez should play in the OF instead of DH meaning he will add offense, but that means the Astros will also be giving up defense. I also think pitchers will be pulled earlier than normal in the NL Park, meaning we should get a lot of bullpen innings. I think the Braves have the bullpen advantage as well, so I am taking the Braves at home.
Ian Anderson hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his postseason starts while Luis Garcia didn’t allow a hit until the 6th inning in his last start. We also lose the DH so the pitchers on both sides will be batting. Both bullpens will be rested with an off day before Game 3, so I think if any game were to be low scoring, it will be this one. There were 8 runs and 9 runs scored in the first 2 games with a DH so I would assume losing the DH on both sides will lower the score by a run. Take the under.