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Sat 10/23 | 12:08 AM UTC | Houston
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Boston Red Sox 98-74, +933 ML
BOS +1.5
BOS +101
Over 9
Houston Astros 101-70, +120 ML
HOU -1.5
HOU -111
Under 9

Expert Picks

Boston 0 @ Houston 5 | 10/23 | 12:08 AM UTC

Houston -111

WIN

ANALYSIS: Normally, I would be all over Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox here but I think Cora put him in a bad situation by having him pitch in Game 4. Not to mention, he hasn’t looked as dominant as he has been in previous playoff starts. But even if he pitches well, he should run out of juice earlier than usual because of his Game 4 appearance, and he still hasn’t gone more than 5.1 IP in these playoffs in the first place. Luis Garcia struggled in his first two playoff starts but that was mostly due to walks. I think he will model after Framber Valdez and attack the zone early to get the Red Sox hitters out. And if he struggles, the Astros have Jake Odorizzi rested and ready to pitch in long relief if need be. Eovaldi’s fastball plays into a lot of these Astros right-handed bats well, I will take the Astros at home to go to the World Series.

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John Bollman

The Executive
+5451 182-132 IN LAST 314 MLB PICKS
+858 11-3 IN LAST 14 HOU ML PICKS

Season Splits

98-74, +933 ML
101-70, +120 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
57%
98-74, +935
101-70, +118
59%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
52%
45-40, +550
54-31, +283
63%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
53%
35-31, +1187
85-51, +142
62%
When Line was -114 to +116
MONEY LINE
When Line was -126 to +104
57%
24-18, +647
20-18, -21
52%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
49%
24-25, +591
51-28, +238
64%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
43%
29-37, -773
37-20, +1067
64%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
49%
33-34, -134
73-46, -56
61%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
54%
17-14, +49
18-10, +400
64%
vs HOU
HEAD TO HEAD
vs BOS
33%
4-8, -412
8-4, +346
66%
when Nathan Eovaldi starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Luis Garcia starts
62%
22-13, +351
16-14, -327
53%