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Sun 09/19 | 11:08 PM UTC | Flushing
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Philadelphia Phillies 76-72, -15 ML
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Over 8.5-105
N.Y. Mets 72-77, -1900 ML
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Under 8.5-115

Expert Picks

Philadelphia 2 @ N.Y. Mets 3 | 09/19 | 11:08 PM UTC

N.Y. Mets -125

WIN

ANALYSIS: Probably slight edge to the Phillies in terms of the starting pitchers -- Kyle Gibson and Rich Hill -- but that Philly lineup is fairly watered down with Joe Girardi sitting Odubel Herrera, Didi Gregorius and Brad Miller presumably because he doesn't like their matchup vs. the lefty Hill. The Phils have won the first two in the series but almost surely will not have closer Ian Kennedy (perhaps a few other relievers too) available as he pitched in each.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+841 26-14 IN LAST 40 NYM PICKS
+1329 32-15 IN LAST 47 PHI PICKS

Season Splits

76-72, -15 ML
72-77, -1900 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
51%
76-72, -17
71-77, -1900
48%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
45%
34-40, -358
42-33, -376
56%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
47%
34-37, +567
48-39, -894
55%
When Line was -105 to +125
MONEY LINE
When Line was -136 to -106
44%
19-24, -352
17-17, -345
50%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
46%
22-25, +286
35-20, +124
63%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
58%
29-21, +559
23-32, -948
41%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
56%
17-13, +473
45-43, -1007
51%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
55%
58-46, +1010
48-55, -1521
46%
vs NYM
HEAD TO HEAD
vs PHI
55%
10-8, +236
8-10, -312
44%
when Kyle Gibson starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Rich Hill starts
50%
4-4, -45
3-6, -338
33%