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Thu 09/16 | 4:35 PM UTC | Pittsburgh
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Cincinnati Reds 76-71, -192 ML
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Over 8-120
Pittsburgh Pirates 54-92, -1360 ML
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Under 8+100

Expert Picks

Cincinnati 1 @ Pittsburgh 0 | 09/16 | 4:35 PM UTC

Cincinnati -177

WIN

ANALYSIS: First off, I'm just not buying a playoff contender going to Pittsburgh and getting swept. Sure, it's possible that happens and the Reds have been anything but inspiring for weeks, but they are still the superior team here with something to play for. Their starter, Tyler Mahle, is having a good season and is 7-2 with a 1.97 ERA in 16 road starts this season, too. Pirates starter Connor Overton isn't really stretched out, so this becomes a bullpen game for them. The Pirates have a 4.91 bullpen ERA in the second half and it's 4.42 this month. They've used a lot of bullpen the past two games, too. The Reds salvage one here.

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Matt Snyder

Stick With What Works
+1875 43-21 IN LAST 64 MLB ML PICKS
+310 3-0 IN LAST 3 PIT ML PICKS
+40 2-1 IN LAST 3 CIN ML PICKS

Season Splits

76-71, -192 ML
54-92, -1360 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
51%
75-71, -254
54-91, -1260
37%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
49%
37-38, +490
34-40, +418
45%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
54%
46-38, -753
47-87, -1457
35%
When Line was -187 to -157
MONEY LINE
When Line was +142 to +172
47%
8-9, -422
18-28, +51
39%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
42%
11-15, -689
27-36, +221
42%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
55%
27-22, -481
20-29, -12
40%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
57%
53-40, +278
31-45, -412
40%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
52%
56-51, +75
31-69, -2261
31%
vs PIT
HEAD TO HEAD
vs CIN
75%
9-3, +180
3-9, -547
25%
when Tyler Mahle starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Connor Overton starts
62%
18-11, +527
0-0, 0