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Thu 09/16 | 10:05 PM UTC | Philadelphia
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Chi. Cubs 66-80, -1011 ML
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Over 8.5-120
Philadelphia Phillies 73-72, -250 ML
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Under 8.5+100

Expert Picks

Chi. Cubs 8 @ Philadelphia 17 | 09/16 | 10:05 PM UTC

Philadelphia -153

WIN

ANALYSIS: I don't see a ton of value on the Cubs at -145 on the RL, so let's take a risk on the unpredictable Phillies. They are using a bullpen game, which probably isn't a good thing if you know about their relievers this year. Cam Bedrosian has been pretty solid, though, since coming over from Oakland and will open the game. Philadelphia is starting its ideal lineup against Kyle Hendricks, who can be great at times but also has had a few terrible outings in his past handful. The Phils have been better against right-handers.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2480 240-163-6 IN LAST 409 MLB PICKS
+1252 18-4 IN LAST 22 CHC ML PICKS
+227 16-10 IN LAST 26 PHI ML PICKS

Season Splits

66-80, -1011 ML
73-72, -250 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
45%
66-80, -1011
73-72, -252
50%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
38%
27-44, -873
41-32, +276
56%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
33%
30-60, -1581
39-35, -819
52%
When Line was +128 to +158
MONEY LINE
When Line was -168 to -138
26%
6-17, -836
12-13, -500
48%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
32%
18-38, -944
29-20, -5
59%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
44%
16-20, -229
25-27, -791
48%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
51%
44-42, +48
35-35, -715
50%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
41%
44-63, -1785
55-46, +775
54%
vs PHI
HEAD TO HEAD
vs CHC
33%
2-4, -105
4-2, +134
66%
when Kyle Hendricks starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Cam Bedrosian starts
56%
17-13, +161
0-0, 0