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Wed 09/15 | 11:05 PM UTC | Baltimore
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
N.Y. Yankees 81-64, -423 ML
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Over 10-105
Baltimore Orioles 46-98, -2516 ML
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Under 10-115

Expert Picks

N.Y. Yankees 4 @ Baltimore 3 | 09/15 | 11:05 PM UTC

N.Y. Yankees -172

WIN

ANALYSIS: Could the Orioles pull off the upset behind their best pitcher in John Means? They certainly could, but I have to take the motivated, better club in the Yanks. Means is 1-2 with a 5.81 ERA in 31 career innings vs. New York and he has allowed a whopping 25 homers in 22 starts this year. The O's also will be without one of their best hitters in Trey Mancini, a late scratch (catcher Pedro Severino also out). Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. is 2-2 with a 2.85 ERA in nine starts this year. Mancini is the only Orioles batter with much career success off him. Baltimore is 2-9 in its past 11 at home vs. lefties.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2380 239-163-6 IN LAST 408 MLB PICKS
+85 5-3 IN LAST 8 BAL ML PICKS
+75 2-1 IN LAST 3 NYY ML PICKS

Season Splits

81-64, -423 ML
46-98, -2516 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
55%
81-64, -423
46-98, -2516
31%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
54%
40-33, +15
22-50, -2112
30%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
56%
65-51, -1008
44-90, -1870
32%
When Line was -192 to -162
MONEY LINE
When Line was +147 to +177
50%
8-8, -343
11-26, -861
29%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
54%
28-23, -440
20-44, -1666
31%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
57%
30-22, -476
19-59, -2546
24%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
56%
47-36, -424
14-31, -309
31%
3rd game without a day off
REST
2nd game without a day off
54%
57-48, -987
6-14, -416
30%
vs BAL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NYY
58%
10-7, -213
7-10, +475
41%
when Nestor Cortes starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when John Means starts
70%
7-3, +307
7-15, -626
31%