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Wed 09/15 | 5:05 PM UTC | Washington
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Miami Marlins 62-84, -1194 ML
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Over 8.5-120
Washington Nationals 60-86, -2152 ML
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Under 8.5+100

Expert Picks

Miami 8 @ Washington 6 | 09/15 | 5:05 PM UTC

Miami -111

WIN

ANALYSIS: First game of Wednesday and the Marlins' final game in D.C. this year. It's scheduled to be an all-Rogers southpaw pitching matchup. That favors excellent Miami rookie Trevor (2.73 ERA) over Washington's Josh (7.04 ERA in 38.1 career big-league innings). The Nats have lost their past five at home vs. lefties and my model has the Marlins winning in about 60 percent of simulations.

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Stephen Oh

Data Scientist
+702 16-8 IN LAST 24 MLB PICKS
+85 2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ML PICKS

Season Splits

62-84, -1194 ML
60-86, -2152 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
42%
61-83, -1177
60-85, -2053
41%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
31%
23-49, -1730
34-40, -956
45%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
57%
22-16, +34
33-66, -2110
33%
When Line was -136 to -106
MONEY LINE
When Line was -105 to +125
52%
13-12, -117
15-28, -1239
34%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
62%
5-3, +120
13-27, -1165
32%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
43%
14-18, -471
22-20, -344
52%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
39%
33-51, -1502
29-43, -1632
40%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
41%
43-61, -1105
44-62, -1763
41%
vs WAS
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIA
40%
6-9, -320
9-6, +155
60%
when Trevor Rogers starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Josh Rogers starts
45%
10-12, -123
1-1, +47
50%