Going contrarian to all my colleagues but this is more of a value pick than anything. The White Sox are obviously a better team but they have lost six of their last 10 games and Kris Bubic has been pitching very well with three straight quality starts. These starters faced the opposing team last start and both threw quality starts so I think this game will be closer than we think. The home/road splits are a reason for concern for both these starters but currently the Royals are expected to win this game 30% of the time according to the implied odds, and I think its more like 40% giving us good value.

This is a story of home/away splits. Royals LHP Kris Bubic has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 15 2/3 innings on the road spanning five appearances. That’s pretty awful. Now he faces a fearsome Chicago lineup and RHP Dylan Cease, who also is much worse on the road, but that’s great for us because his 2.44 ERA and 3.42 K/BB ratio at home should be reliable enough to get us this win. I know it’s heavy, but it’s still the right call. Cease never has surrendered more than three runs at home, so lay the juice.