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Sun 07/25 | 5:05 PM UTC | Philadelphia
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Atlanta Braves 48-50, -896 ML
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Over 9.5+100
Philadelphia Phillies 49-49, -2 ML
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Under 9.5-120

Expert Picks

Atlanta 1 @ Philadelphia 2 | 07/25 | 5:05 PM UTC

OVER 9.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Going right back to this play after the Braves scored 15 on Saturday. I think the Phillies are more likely to return the favor against Atlanta RHP Touki Toussaint, who got extremely lucky in his first start of the year. Toussaint’s expected weighted On-Base Average on contact (xwOBAcon) was in the bottom four percent of pitchers for last season, and I think we see that version of him on the road. Phillies RHP Aaron Nola has struggled against the Braves this season, allowing nine runs and four homers over nine innings in his last two meetings with them. Throw in the exposure to these lackluster bullpens and I think we get to 10 runs.

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Justin Perri

Model Guy
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS
+495 6-1 IN LAST 7 PHI O/U PICKS

Season Splits

48-50, -896 ML
49-49, -2 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
49%
48-49, -797
48-49, -65
49%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
47%
22-24, -294
28-19, +639
59%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
44%
15-19, -72
22-18, -219
55%
When Line was +135 to +165
MONEY LINE
When Line was -175 to -145
75%
3-1, +351
3-5, -315
37%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
41%
10-14, -216
18-10, +303
64%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
54%
18-15, +146
19-18, +61
51%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
59%
29-20, +260
18-19, -315
48%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
52%
34-31, -244
32-32, +175
50%
vs PHI
HEAD TO HEAD
vs ATL
46%
7-8, -154
8-7, +79
53%
when Touki Toussaint starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Aaron Nola starts
100%
1-0, +157
9-10, -331
47%