Atlanta 1 @ Philadelphia 2 | 07/25 | 5:05 PM UTC
ANALYSIS: Going right back to this play after the Braves scored 15 on Saturday. I think the Phillies are more likely to return the favor against Atlanta RHP Touki Toussaint, who got extremely lucky in his first start of the year. Toussaint’s expected weighted On-Base Average on contact (xwOBAcon) was in the bottom four percent of pitchers for last season, and I think we see that version of him on the road. Phillies RHP Aaron Nola has struggled against the Braves this season, allowing nine runs and four homers over nine innings in his last two meetings with them. Throw in the exposure to these lackluster bullpens and I think we get to 10 runs.