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Sat 07/24 | 10:05 PM UTC | Philadelphia
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Atlanta Braves 47-49, -911 ML
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Over 10.5-105
Philadelphia Phillies 48-48, +35 ML
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Under 10.5-115

Expert Picks

Atlanta 15 @ Philadelphia 3 | 07/24 | 10:05 PM UTC

Philadelphia -125

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Seems a solid price on the Phils, who are pretty darn good at home. Checking the lineups (this is why you won't see my NFL/NCAAF picks early in weeks; I'm always going to wait), it appears every key Philadelphia player is in there. Braves starter Drew Smyly is meh and has a 6.75 ERA vs. the Phillies this year in 9.1 innings. Vincent "don't call me Vega -- Royale with cheese!" Velasquez was very good in his lone 2021 start against Atlanta.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2976 125-73-5 IN LAST 203 MLB PICKS
+408 10-4 IN LAST 14 ATL ML PICKS
+183 13-8 IN LAST 21 PHI ML PICKS

Season Splits

47-49, -911 ML
48-48, +35 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
49%
47-49, -912
48-48, +35
50%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
46%
21-24, -409
28-18, +739
60%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
42%
14-19, -187
22-17, -119
56%
When Line was +100 to +130
MONEY LINE
When Line was -140 to -110
39%
9-14, -328
15-10, +186
60%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
39%
9-14, -331
18-9, +403
66%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
53%
17-15, +31
19-17, +161
52%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
58%
28-20, +145
18-18, -215
50%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
51%
33-31, -359
32-31, +275
50%
vs PHI
HEAD TO HEAD
vs ATL
42%
6-8, -269
8-6, +179
57%
when Drew Smyly starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Vincent Velasquez starts
50%
8-8, +7
9-8, +89
52%