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Fri 07/23 | 11:05 PM UTC | Philadelphia
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Atlanta Braves 47-48, -811 ML
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Over 7.5-115
Philadelphia Phillies 47-48, -30 ML
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Under 7.5-105

Expert Picks

Atlanta 1 @ Philadelphia 5 | 07/23 | 11:05 PM UTC

Philadelphia -153

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The Phillies are an excellent home team but no surprise they were routed by the Braves on Thursday because Atlanta had the clear pitching edge. That belongs to Philadelphia on Friday with Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.44) -- his FanGraphs WAR of 4.6 is third-best in the majors of any pitcher. He has a 1.37 ERA in three starts this year vs. the Braves. The Phils rested outfielder Andrew McCutchen and All-Star catcher JT Realmuto on Thursday and both should be back in there. Atlanta starter Max Fried has a 6.43 road ERA.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+3562 122-67-5 IN LAST 194 MLB PICKS
+686 10-2 IN LAST 12 ATL ML PICKS
+308 13-7 IN LAST 20 PHI ML PICKS

Season Splits

47-48, -811 ML
47-48, -30 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
49%
47-48, -812
47-48, -30
49%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
47%
21-23, -309
27-18, +674
60%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
43%
14-18, -87
21-17, -184
55%
When Line was +128 to +158
MONEY LINE
When Line was -168 to -138
83%
5-1, +611
4-5, -225
44%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
40%
9-13, -231
17-9, +338
65%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
54%
17-14, +131
18-17, +96
51%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
59%
28-19, +245
17-18, -280
48%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
52%
33-30, -259
31-31, +210
50%
vs PHI
HEAD TO HEAD
vs ATL
46%
6-7, -169
7-6, +114
53%
when Max Fried starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Zack Wheeler starts
53%
8-7, -76
11-8, +156
57%