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Fri 07/23 | 12:10 AM UTC | Minneapolis
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
L.A. Angels 46-48, -554 ML
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Over 9+100
Minnesota Twins 41-55, -2000 ML
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Under 9-120

Expert Picks

L.A. Angels 3 @ Minnesota 2 | 07/23 | 12:10 AM UTC

Minnesota -140

PENDING

ANALYSIS: Minnesota's Kenta Maeda is starting to pitch to 2020 form when he was the AL Cy Young runner-up as the right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA, .130 opponents' batting average and 25 strikeouts in three July starts. Just four of Maeda's 15 starts so far this season have come at home, and he has a 2.41 ERA at Target Field. On the flip side, Angels lefty Andrew Heaney has allowed 19 runs over 18.1 innings in his past four. Nelson Cruz destroys lefties and has three homers in 19 at-bats off Heaney. Minnesota is 6-0 in its past six as a home favorite. UPDATE: Cruz was traded to Rays, which makes me not like this pick nearly as much -- probably wouldn't have chosen it -- but nothing we can do about it.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+3129 125-72-5 IN LAST 202 MLB PICKS
+465 11-5 IN LAST 16 LAA ML PICKS

Season Splits

46-48, -554 ML
41-55, -2000 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
48%
46-48, -555
41-55, -2000
42%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
42%
19-26, -536
22-25, -851
46%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
42%
19-26, -184
26-30, -1307
46%
When Line was -105 to +125
MONEY LINE
When Line was -136 to -106
45%
9-11, -139
9-14, -693
39%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
36%
11-19, -457
16-17, -728
48%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
64%
16-9, +178
10-14, -516
41%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
54%
31-26, -123
30-36, -1420
45%
After a Day Off
REST
3rd game without a day off
46%
7-8, -245
32-36, -842
47%
vs MIN
HEAD TO HEAD
vs LAA
66%
2-1, +67
1-2, -113
33%
when Andrew Heaney starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Kenta Maeda starts
37%
6-10, -462
5-10, -693
33%