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Wed 07/21 | 6:10 PM UTC | Milwaukee
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Kansas City Royals 39-55, -1101 ML
KC +1.5
KC +162
Over 9
Milwaukee Brewers 56-41, +580 ML
MIL -1.5
MIL -177
Under 9

Expert Picks

Kansas City 6 @ Milwaukee 3 | 07/21 | 6:10 PM UTC

Milwaukee -160

PENDING

ANALYSIS: I see no reason to wait until early Wednesday to make this wager after KC burned me Tuesday. Looks to be a fairly lopsided pitching matchup with Kansas City's Brad Keller (6-9, 5.97) opposed by Milwaukee lefty Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Keller has been a bit better away yet still allowing batters to hit .313 off him on the road. Lauer has allowed just two runs and 11 hits over 18.1 innings in his past three. He loves day games with a 2-0 record and 1.86 ERA. The Royals are not great vs. lefties, Tuesday's upset against mediocre Brett Anderson aside.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+3462 121-67-5 IN LAST 193 MLB PICKS
+102 7-4 IN LAST 11 KC ML PICKS
+65 5-3 IN LAST 8 MIL ML PICKS

Season Splits

39-55, -1101 ML
56-41, +580 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
40%
38-55, -1265
56-40, +680
58%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
34%
16-31, -997
27-22, -369
55%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
34%
22-41, -1065
36-27, -396
57%
When Line was +147 to +177
MONEY LINE
When Line was -192 to -162
38%
7-11, +49
6-5, -162
54%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
29%
12-29, -1138
23-16, -263
59%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
37%
10-17, -300
26-15, +150
63%
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
53%
7-6, +287
35-28, -157
55%
2nd game without a day off
REST
2nd game without a day off
38%
5-8, -257
8-3, +368
72%
vs MIL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs KC
100%
3-0, +479
0-3, -300
0%
when Brad Keller starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Eric Lauer starts
42%
8-11, -103
4-5, -122
44%