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Fri 06/11 | 11:10 PM UTC | Flushing
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
San Diego Padres 37-27, -157 ML
SD +1.5
SD +157
Over 6
N.Y. Mets 30-24, +96 ML
NYM -1.5
NYM -172
Under 6

Expert Picks

San Diego 2 @ N.Y. Mets 3 | 06/11 | 11:10 PM UTC

N.Y. Mets -157

WIN

ANALYSIS: Getting Mets ace Jacob deGrom (5-2, 0.62) at less than -160 is something you have to take -- and I'm quite sure this won't stay under -160 for long. What this guy is doing so far in 2021 is historic, and he dominated the Padres last time out. DeGrom is opposed by lefty Blake Snell (2-2, 4.83), and while he dominated the Mets last time out (the former Cy Young winners weren't opposite one another last weekend), Snell otherwise has been a disappointment this year. San Diego is struggling a bit offensively right now and is 2-8 in its past 10 vs. a right-hander. The Mets are 8-1 in their past nine as home favorites.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+700 12-4 IN LAST 16 MLB PICKS
+240 5-2 IN LAST 7 NYM ML PICKS
+20 2-1 IN LAST 3 SD ML PICKS

Season Splits

37-27, -157 ML
30-24, +96 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
57%
37-27, -157
30-24, +96
55%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
55%
16-13, +52
15-5, +567
75%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
40%
6-9, -157
18-14, -289
56%
When Line was +135 to +165
MONEY LINE
When Line was -175 to -145
50%
2-2, +93
5-2, +128
71%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
50%
5-5, +128
12-5, +217
70%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
50%
14-14, -162
8-8, -11
50%
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
50%
11-11, -144
5-6, -131
45%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
71%
5-2, +54
6-8, -399
42%
vs NYM
HEAD TO HEAD
vs SD
50%
2-2, -93
2-2, +27
50%
when Blake Snell starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Jacob deGrom starts
41%
5-7, -379
6-3, -13
66%