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Sat 06/12 | 12:10 AM UTC | Milwaukee
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Pittsburgh Pirates 23-38, -568 ML
PIT +1.5
PIT +270
Over 7.5
Milwaukee Brewers 35-27, +586 ML
MIL -1.5
MIL -320
Under 7.5

Expert Picks

Pittsburgh 4 @ Milwaukee 7 | 06/12 | 12:10 AM UTC

Milwaukee -1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: We cashed betting against Pittsburgh on the runline Thursday when the Pirates were at home, and now they head to red-hot Milwaukee and face Cy Young candidate Brandon Woodruff (4-2, 1.42), who should dominate one of the majors' worst lineups. Woodruff has 10 quality starts this year and opponents are batting just .150 off him. The Bucs' Chase De Jong (0-0, 5.40) is only in the rotation because of injuries. The 27-year-old was signed as a minor league free agent in December and is 1-5 with a 6.85 ERA in his MLB career spanning four teams and 64.1 innings. The Brewers aren't good value at -270 on the ML but are on the runline.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+700 12-4 IN LAST 16 MLB PICKS
+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ATS PICKS
+88 3-2 IN LAST 5 MIL ATS PICKS

Season Splits

23-38, -568 ML
35-27, +586 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
37%
23-38, -568
35-27, +586
56%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
34%
10-19, -261
17-15, -199
53%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
34%
19-36, -705
18-16, -365
52%
When Line was +250 to +280
MONEY LINE
When Line was -325 to -295
0-0, 0
1-0, +34
100%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
34%
10-19, -261
13-10, -193
56%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
34%
9-17, -259
13-10, -110
56%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
0%
0-8, -800
18-17, -172
51%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
38%
15-24, -88
24-18, +470
57%
vs MIL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs PIT
66%
2-1, +213
1-2, -126
33%
when Chase De Jong starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Brandon Woodruff starts
50%
1-1, +15
9-3, +508
75%