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Thu 06/10 | 4:35 PM UTC | Cincinnati
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Milwaukee Brewers 35-27, +586 ML
MIL -1.5+150
MIL -110
Over 8-115
Cincinnati Reds 29-31, -237 ML
CIN +1.5-180
CIN +100
Under 8-105

Expert Picks

Milwaukee 7 @ Cincinnati 2 | 06/10 | 4:35 PM UTC

Milwaukee -115

WIN

ANALYSIS: Arguably the most disappointing pitcher in the majors is Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, a former All-Star who is 2-8 with a 6.63 ERA. If you had bet $100 on the Reds in each of Castillo's starts, you would have lost $838 -- no pitcher has been worse from a betting perspective. He's opposed in the matinee by underrated Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta (6-1, 2.25). He no-hit Arizona for 7.1 innings last time out and has allowed two earned or fewer in five straight outings. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+755 10-2 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 MIL ML PICKS

Season Splits

35-27, +586 ML
29-31, -237 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
55%
34-27, +495
29-30, -137
49%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
58%
17-12, +694
13-15, -459
46%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
52%
18-16, -365
14-14, +405
50%
When Line was -130 to -100
MONEY LINE
When Line was -110 to +120
57%
11-8, +166
9-10, -40
47%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
45%
5-6, -172
3-3, +20
50%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
44%
8-10, -84
11-12, +106
47%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
50%
17-17, -263
4-5, -127
44%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
56%
23-18, +379
16-20, -426
44%
vs CIN
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIL
60%
3-2, +165
2-3, -97
40%
when Freddy Peralta starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Luis Castillo starts
72%
8-3, +372
2-10, -832
16%