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Thu 06/10 | 11:10 PM UTC | Miami
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Colorado Rockies 25-37, -922 ML
COL +1.5-115
COL +183
Over 7.5-105
Miami Marlins 26-35, -677 ML
MIA -1.5-105
MIA -203
Under 7.5-115

Expert Picks

Colorado 4 @ Miami 11 | 06/10 | 11:10 PM UTC

Miami -1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I have been fading the Rockies for most of the season but have had to hold off as they've improved on their dismal road record over the last couple of weeks. But tonight they face Trevor Rogers, so I think they will revert to the Rockies we are used to seeing on the road and struggle to produce runs. Rogers (.275 xwOBA and 29.7 percent strikeout rate) should keep this team limited offensively. Meanwhile Miami gets to face Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has a low strikeout rate (12.3 percent) as well as other subpar peripherals. Back the fish to win by two or more at a better price than the steep moneyline.

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Justin Perri

Model Guy
+955 18-10 IN LAST 28 MLB ATS PICKS
+400 6-3 IN LAST 9 COL ATS PICKS

Season Splits

25-37, -922 ML
26-35, -677 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
40%
25-37, -922
26-35, -677
42%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
17%
5-23, -1645
13-13, -226
50%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
33%
17-34, -1269
12-11, -232
52%
When Line was +168 to +198
MONEY LINE
When Line was -218 to -188
14%
1-6, -407
1-0, +53
100%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
18%
5-22, -1545
9-9, -282
50%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
68%
11-5, +551
6-12, -489
33%
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
25%
7-20, -1132
14-19, -371
42%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
38%
15-24, -718
19-25, -521
43%
vs MIA
HEAD TO HEAD
vs COL
50%
1-1, +5
1-1, -47
50%
when Chi-Chi Gonzalez starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Trevor Rogers starts
28%
2-5, -203
7-5, +298
58%