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Expert Picks
Since his first start of the season, Kyle Gibson has pitched six innings and allowed less than three runs in all of his starts but his last, where he pitched 5.1 scoreless innings. Zack Littell is opening for the Giants in a bullpen game. The Rangers have lost 12 of 13 games but they are at least showing signs of life. Take the Rangers to ride behind Gibson today.
I still can't believe I lost Rangers +1.5 on Tuesday -- they led 4-2 entering the top of the eighth and lost 9-4 to the Giants as the bullpen imploded. This is simply a bad team. That said, Wednesday starter Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.06), who has nine quality starts on the year and almost surely will be traded by the end of July to a contender, has been great. He is 3-0 with a 0.57 ERA in five starts at Globe Life Field this season, with Texas winning all of them. The Giants are basically doing a bullpen day and may just treat this as a throwaway game - I'd bet Buster Posey sits out, for example -- for the most part having to travel out after. Rangers on RL.
Kyle Gibson has been phenomenal. Because of his extremely effective slider, he is in the top 9 percentile in wOBA (.243) and has a low barrel rate and good chase rate. I like Gibson to keep the Giants quiet today. The Rangers have the worst wRC+ over the last two weeks, almost 40 percent lower than the league average in creating runs in this time span. They’re also in the bottom five of most other sabermetric offensive statistics. This is a great spot for the Under here.
First game of Wednesday as the teams wrap up a quick two-game interleague set. Giants lefty Sam Long will be called up to make his major league debut vs. the Rangers. San Francisco also again adds the DH. In nearly 60 percent of model simulations, the total lands Over 8.5 runs.