Bettors are getting a bit of a gift here in that the Cardinals are only -121 on the moneyline. They are clearly the far superior team. That number is low because it's impressive young Pirates right-hander JT Brubaker (3-2, 2.58) on the mound. His worst outing of the year, though, was against the Cardinals in late April. They go with John Gant (2-3, 1.83). He beat the Bucs in late April, allowing a run over five. Pittsburgh is just 6-20 in the past 26 in this series. The Cards are 11-1 in their past 12 as favorites.

JT Brubaker has quietly been the Pirates best pitcher this season as he is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA. He has only allowed three runs or more in a start once this season and it was against the Cardinals at home. John Gant is 2-3 with a 1.83 ERA this season but his performance has been masked slightly by his ERA considering he has walked 27 batters in 34.1 IP this season. However, the Cards return home after a long road trip and the Pirates are still missing two of their best players. I expect the Cards to snap their three-game losing streak tonight at home.

John Gant's 1.83 ERA is misleading. Yes, he has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start all year. But his 4.35 FIP indicates it’s been mostly luck. Gant’s walk rate is up, his strike out rate is down, his left-on-base percent is astronomical (86 percent) and somehow it has not caught up to him. I like that to change Tuesday. Pitching for the Pirates is another unlikely stud in JT Brubaker, I think he’s a mid-level pitcher who’s been hot and throwing good stuff, but he isn’t an ace and the Cardinals will get a few runs. This total is a bit low at 7.5, so let's go Over.