The over is awfully tempting here with the Blue Jays' powerful offense taking on Vince Velasquez, but we're taking the Jays on the run line instead. It boils down to trust. The Phillies have knocked Steven Matz around for years, notably Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura, but this is an inconsistent bunch likely to be without JT Realmuto. Meantime, the Jays' bats are really hot and TD Ballpark has played incredibly hitter-friendly all year. The over is likely to hit, but we're more confident in a multi-run Jays win.