Drew Smyly is 0-2 with an 8.35 ERA this season and has allowed five runs in each of his last three starts. In his last three turns, he has served up eight home runs and issued six walks. The Nationals go with Jon Lester, who pitched six scoreless innings in his first outing of the season. Washington has an .853 OPS against left-handers, good for second in the league, while the Braves are second-worst team versus southpaws with a .564 OPS. Take the value in the Nationals.

Here's another game where I think the wrong team is favored but could flip by first pitch; since it hasn't yet, we will take the Nats on the runline at -160. They start lefty Jon Lester, who threw five shutout innings vs. Miami in his team and season debut last Friday. He is 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts against Atlanta, which has just one victory this year vs. a lefty. Lester catches one break in that the Braves are sitting reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman. It's southpaw Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.25) for the Braves, and he has been terrible.