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Thu 05/06 | 8:05 PM UTC | Washington
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Atlanta Braves 14-16, -489 ML
ATL -1.5+145
ATL -111
Over 9+100
Washington Nationals 12-14, -195 ML
WAS +1.5-170
WAS +101
Under 9-120

Expert Picks

Atlanta 3 @ Washington 2 | 05/06 | 8:05 PM UTC

Washington +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Here's another game where I think the wrong team is favored but could flip by first pitch; since it hasn't yet, we will take the Nats on the runline at -160. They start lefty Jon Lester, who threw five shutout innings vs. Miami in his team and season debut last Friday. He is 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts against Atlanta, which has just one victory this year vs. a lefty. Lester catches one break in that the Braves are sitting reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman. It's southpaw Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.25) for the Braves, and he has been terrible.

author-image

Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+993 35-20 IN LAST 55 MLB ATS PICKS
+65 2-1 IN LAST 3 WAS ATS PICKS

Season Splits

14-16, -489 ML
12-14, -195 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
46%
14-16, -490
12-14, -95
46%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
43%
7-9, -258
8-7, -72
53%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
47%
11-12, -446
5-11, -303
31%
When Line was -126 to +104
MONEY LINE
When Line was -114 to +116
25%
2-6, -419
2-2, +95
50%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
44%
4-5, -214
1-5, -380
16%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
62%
5-3, +50
1-7, -610
12%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
37%
9-15, -804
12-11, +205
52%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
44%
8-10, -368
7-8, -111
46%
vs WAS
HEAD TO HEAD
vs ATL
80%
4-1, +186
1-4, -310
20%
when Drew Smyly starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Jon Lester starts
0%
0-4, -400
1-0, +120
100%