It's not that I so much like the Orioles here, but looking at Miami's starting lineup it's pretty weak with regulars Brian Anderson, Starling Marte and Jorge Alfaro (last two on IL) not in it. Baltimore enters having won three of four and scored at least five runs in each of those wins. The O's have been much better on the road than at home. Birds starter Bruce Zimmermann (1-1, 4.24) has been solid and the Marlins have never faced him. Miami's Trevor Rogers (1-1, 2.40) has better numbers, but it might be a mirage as he's walking a ton of guys. We'll take the Orioles at -160 on the runline.

A good price on the Marlins as 67 percent of simulations have them winning behind lefty ace Trevor Rogers (1-1, 2.40). He has given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his first three starts and has a terrific strikeout ratio of 13.8 per nine innings. The Orioles, who lose the DH, are 1-4 in their past five vs. lefties.