The Rays offer value again this afternoon thanks to the public name value of the New York Yankees. At home in Tampa is one of the best places in all of baseball for Chris Archer to face this Yankees lineup, especially if Judge and Urshela are out again. Domingo German has flashed major upside at times, but I question his ability to pitch deep into this game, which is what the Yankees will need after being forced to the bullpen early yesterday. My model suggests this line should be -113 as I have the Rays winning 53% of simulations in this situation.

Yankees starter Domingo Germán lasted only three innings in his 2021 debut. In addition, the Rays have owned the Bombers in the last season and a half, going 14-4 in the last 18 meetings between the teams. My model says Tampa Bay wins almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.