Picking against an opening day Max Scherzer? I must be mad. It's just that the Nats haven't done much, baseball-wise, in a while and are playing with nine players on the IL, including sluggers Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber and closer Brad Hand. The Braves have started 0-3 and haven't hit at all, so it's time for the law of averages to kick in. Also, Braves starter Drew Smyly was excellent last season and carried it over in the spring. He'll miss a lot of bats with that depleted Nationals' offense.

I like the value on the Braves against a watered down Nationals lineup as they play their first game of the season. I played this game at +110 this morning on the Early Edge podcast and I would still play it here at +105 as I make the Braves -109 in my simulations.

The Nationals are the last team to take the field this season and these late afternoon starts hugely help the pitchers with the shadows around home plate. There's also the fact that Washington pitcher Max Scherzer is still dominant and the Under is 5-0 in the Braves' past five vs. right-handers. Atlanta lefty Drew Smyly is just OK (3.42 ERA in limited time last year), but I think he could be quite good Tuesday because the Nats reportedly have a handful of their regulars out in the COVID protocols (see news feed story), so it will be a very watered-down lineup.