Zack Greinke has struggled as of late allowing at least three runs in seven straight games. Kenta Maeda has been the Twins ace this season and he ended the season as the MLB leader in WHIP. Zack Greinke had a memorable World Series start against the Nationals, but he was 0-2 with a 4.68 ERA in five starts last postseason. The Astros bullpen has struggled and I think the Astros should be able to score some runs today, I like the over.

The Astros are a trendy underdog play today, but the Twins offer the best value at -160. I have Minnesota winning 65 percent of simulations with Kenta Maeda vs. Zack Greinke. Look for Maeda to continue his dominant 0.75 WHIP against this Astros lineup.

Kenta Maeda leads the majors with a 0.75 WHIP and the Twins posted a 2.89 ERA at home. I think Zack Greinke will do his part, too, keeping this game Under.

My model says the Twins win in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting good value with them here. Minnesota finished with the best home record in the major leagues during the regular season at 24-7. The Astros registered the second-fewest amount of road victories in the American League with nine. Twins RHP Kenta Maeda's 0.75 WHIP was the best in baseball. Houston's Zack Greinke has won only three of his 16 career postseason starts. Take Minnesota.