The Yankees are facing a steep, uphill climb if they want to reach the World Series, and they know it. They know they not only have to beat Justin Verlander tonight, but then Gerrit Cole in Game 6. Then possibly Zack Greinke again in Game 7. If they fall behind early tonight, I expect them to fold like we've seen plenty of other teams do this October in similar spots. Given James Paxton's 9.00 ERA in the 1st inning this season, I see it happening. And even if it doesn't happen early, I'm still backing the better team by far.

Justin Verlander is 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA this season and he has a 1.19 ERA in three playoff starts against the Astros. He threw 6.2 innings giving up two runs in his first outing this series. James Paxton is 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA this season and he only pitched 2.1 innings in his first start this series giving up one run. The Astros have the second highest OPS in the league against lefties and the Yankees made four errors last night while only picking up five hits. Their key hitters in Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorius look completely lost. And the Yankees are striking out way too much, especially with runners on. Look for the Astros to end the series tonight.