Gerrit Cole is 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA this season and 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA in the playoffs. Luis Severino was 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in three starts in the regular season. The Yankees will go with Severino as long as possible, but he isn’t fully built up so they will employ a bullpen game with their bullpen that has been filthy. This game should be closer to +110 for the Yankees at home in this stadium. It doesn’t take much to hit one out with a couple hard throwers, I like the value in the Yankees at home.

The Astros have won 15 straight behind Gerrit Cole, and he’s allowed only two runs between his last four starts. It’s as if he’s been getting stronger as the season goes on. Double-digit strikeouts in his last 11 starts aren’t normal, but that’s what he’s streaking at right now. The Astros beat the Yankees, 6-3, in Cole’s only 2019 start against them. Astros get the win.