Jason Vargas has a 5.00 ERA over the last month and I like the Braves to knock him around Tuesday night in Philly. Max Fried has 25 strikeouts and one walk over his last three starts, and Atlanta has won his last four road starts. Lay it with the Braves.

Max Fried has posted a 2.90 ERA his last seven starts, and the Braves are an amazing 21-6 when he starts. The Phillies are in the process of bottoming out. But Jason Vargas has a better track record at home and presents considerable value. The Phillies actually win more than half of my simulations and at a huge underdog bargain. Take the value with Philly.