The Phillies come in struggling, having lost two of three to the hopeless Marlins. Starter Jason Vargas has yet to win a game in a Phillies uniform and has a 7.11 career ERA against the Pirates. I'll take the upset-minded Pirates, who have won four of six.

Jason Vargas is 6-6 with a 3.99 ERA this season and he is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA at home. He gave up three earned runs in 5.2 IP in his only start against Pittsburgh this season. Joe Musgrove is 8-12 with a 4.74 ERA this season and he is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in August. The Phillies are getting Bryce Harper back from paternity leave and the Pirates are dead last in OPS against lefties. Take the value in the Phillies at home.

The Pirates come into Philly having won nine of their last 34 road games, and the Phillies have had their number, winning eight of the last 10 between the in-state rival. My projections see another win for them -- the Phillies win a solid 64 percent of my simulations. That number that should bring a money line of -178. The strong value is on Philadelphia.