Homer Bailey is 11-8 with a 5.06 ERA this season but he is 4-5 with a 6.98 ERA on the road. This will be his first time returning to Kansas City since being traded. Brad Keller is 7-13 with a 3.95 ERA this season and he is 4-5 with a 3.60 ERA at home. He has thrown six quality starts in his last eight games. Take the value in the Royals.

The trends favor the Athletics here, but the projections like Brad Keller and the Royals in this matchup. Kansas City has lost four of five and seven of eight at home, but Keller is coming off six scoreless innings his last time out. The Royals win just over 50 percent of my simulations. At this money line price, the Royals are a major steal.