I realize the Nationals have scored 97 runs over their last 10 games and that Stephen Strasburg (15-5, 3.65 ERA) is on the mound on Sunday. But Cubs starter Cole Hamels has a 2.05 ERA in 22 career games at Wrigley Field, and, in his three starts against Washington over the last two seasons, he has a 3.06 ERA. My model says Chicago wins this game more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with the Cubs.