The Cubs are 41-19 at Wrigley this season and a whopping 32 games over .500 as the favorite. The Giants are playing good ball, too, but Tyler Beede has an ERA approaching 9 over the last month, while Cubs starter Cole Hamels has been tough to crack at home. Chicago wins 71 percent of my simulations, which offers a differential of -245. Grabs the Cubs here as a big bargain.