Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Adam Wainwright is 2-6 with a 6.96 ERA on the road and sports a 5.31 career ERA against the Reds -- his worst versus any team. Lay the reasonable price with Luis Castillo and Cincinnati.
Adam Wainwright is 8-8 with a 4.35 ERA this season and he is 2-6 with a 6.96 ERA on the road. Luis Castillo is 11-4 with a 2.69 ERA this season and he is 7-3 with a 2.35 ERA at home. In both his starts against the Cardinals this season, he only gave up one run in six innings. Wainwright has also faced the Reds twice, giving up two runs in six innings in April but 7 runs in 3.1 IP in July. The Reds are 34-28 at home while the Cardinals are 29-33 on the road. The Reds are 24-13 as the home favorite while the Cards are 15-27 as the road dog.
My data has the Cardinals toppling the Reds in slightly more than half of simulations, which is more than enough to provide major value Friday on the road underdog. I've got St. Louis winning in 51 percent of simulations, giving us an overlay against the plus-money price. The Cardinals have won six of the last seven games started by Adam Wainwright and are also on a years-long 43-20 run when he faces NL Central opponents.