I'm a huge fan of Trevor Williams, but he hasn't been himself since coming back from an injury. And the Pirates have lost his last three starts, the last one to Steven Matz and the Mets. The Pirates have lost 10 of their last 11, and the Mets have won seven straight which includes a sweep of the Pirates last weekend. Mets to win.

Steven Matz is on a roll, and he just tossed a complete-game shutout of these Pirates on July 22 in New York. He's allowed four earned runs over his last 20 innings. The Mets have won seven straight, while the Pirates have dropped 13 of 16. Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams has just two quality starts in his last 10 tries. Lay the small price.

My projection model sees major value on the downtrodden Pirates as they host the Mets on Friday in a rematch of last weekend's series in which Pittsburgh was swept in New York. But my simulations see the Pirates winning 64 percent of the time Friday, a major bargain against the flat price. Pittsburgh is 10-1 when Trevor Williams starts at home against losing opponents. New York is 1-4 in the last five road outings by Steven Matz.