Gerrit Cole vs. Danny Salazar doesn’t sound like much of a matchup. But there is value in the huge underdog Indians. They’ve won eight of 10 at home and have won eight of Salazar’s last nine starts against teams with winning records. The Astros win more than half of my simulations, but it’s close enough to make Cleveland a real value at this price.

A theme for the Astros when Gerrit Cole takes the mound is runs galore. Four straight starts when Cole has been on the mound the Astros have scored eight runs or more. That figures to continue as Danny Salazar will make his 2019 debut for the Indians. After yesterday’s high-scoring affair and Astros bullpen letdown, this would seem like a favorable spot for the Over. Instead, look for the Indians to have their bullpen ready early and for Cole to continue to cruise. Grab the Under.