Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
The Pirates appear to be in a free fall, with eight straight losses and a 2-14 mark since the All-Star break. Still, there is value with the run line (+1.5, +135) against a Reds club that arguably shouldn't be a -200 or steeper favorite against any MLB club. Reds starter Sonny Gray already has lost twice this season to Pittsburgh and has a career ERA of 4.24 in five appearances against the Pirates. Jordan Lyles is 0-6 in his past eight starts but is 4-2 with a 4.30 ERA against the Reds.
This is a steep price, but it's playable given current form. Reds starter Sonny Gray owns a 1.62 ERA over his last five starts and will be facing a Pirates team that's lost eight in a row and 14 of 16. Cincinnati should tee off on Jordan Lyles, who has a 15.00 ERA this month. Lyles started the season impressively but has fallen apart the last couple months. Pittsburgh has lost his last eight starts. Lay it with the Reds.