Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
The buyback towards Atlanta was enough to push this back into the range that I'm comfortable playing. I have minor concerns with Corbin facing 7 of 8 right-handed hitters, but I like the way the Nationals constructed their lineup. My simulations make Washington -158 home favorites against Dallas Keuchel.
Dallas Keuchel is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA this season but he is 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA in four starts on the road. He faced the Nationals in his first game of the season and gave up four runs in five innings. Patrick Corbin is 8-5 with a 3.25 ERA and he is 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA at home. In July, He is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and he only gave up two runs in five innings in his one outing against the Braves. Both these teams are good against lefties but the Nats are slightly better with the 4th highest OPS in the league while the Braves are seventh.
Patrick Corbin has been unbelievable in 10 home starts this season, recording a 0.88 WHIP with a 1.68 ERA. This game means a lot to the Nats, who trail Atlanta by 5.5 games in the NL East. Dallas Keuchel got knocked around for eight hits in five innings in his only previous start versus the Nats this year, a 4-3 Washington win. Both teams hit lefties well but Washington does it better (.827 OPS to .801).